Kim Jong Un Is “All-In.” What’s Next for Korea?
There’s a dark purpose in Kim Jong Un’s proffered moratorium on
nuclear and ballistic missile testing anno..
[The Cipher Brief 는 CIA 와 연관이 깊다.]
저자 : Gordon G Chang (중국계 미국인)
미국 최대 로펌의 파트너 변호사 출신
(전문직 CIA 요원으로 합리적
의혹을
받는 인물.)
Kim Jong Un Is “All-In.” What’s Next for Korea?
김정은은 "올인"이다. 한국의 다음
단계는 무엇인가?
There’s a dark purpose in Kim Jong Un’s proffered
moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing announced over the weekend.
Kim, with the apparent complicity of South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, seeks
to eventually merge his state into the South – and drive out U.S. troops from
the peninsula.
Most pundits thought Saturday’s nuclear announcement was
aimed at President Donald Trump, ahead of the planned Kim-Trump summit in June.
Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim Jong Un as saying his drive
for nuclear weapons is “complete.” “We no longer need any nuclear tests,
mid-range and intercontinental ballistic rocket tests,” he declared, adding that
the nuclear test site in the northern area of his country has also “completed
its mission.”
■ 김정은은 문재인 대통령과 공모해서 궁극적으로 남북통일 후, 미군을 한반도에서 쫓아 내려고
한다.
More likely, however, Kim’s intended audience is Moon Jae-in – hoping
to help Moon take further steps toward eventual reunification with the North,
ahead of the Friday talks with the South Korean at the Peace House, south of the
Military Demarcation Line in Panmunjom, the Demilitarized Zone’s Truce Village.
When Kim crosses that line, he will become the first North Korean leader to
visit the South.
So what is the Kimster up to? The core goal of the Kims,
ever since the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in 1948, is
the takeover of the Republic of Korea. In the North, that is called “final
victory,” and it is a term Kim has been using with some frequency.
■ 김정은의
목표는 무엇인가. 한국을 접수하는 것이다. 북한에서는 이걸 "최후의 승리" 라고 부른다.
■ 김정은 스스로 "내가 드디어 역사적 과업을
이루기 직전이다" 라고 생각하고 있다해서 놀라서는 안 된다.
We should not be surprised if Kim
thinks he is on the verge of an historic accomplishment. In Moon, Kim has a
willing target. The South Korean leader, after all, has surrounded himself with
North Korea’s most ardent advocates.
“Some of President Moon’s advisers
were once members of the juchesasangpa, also known as the ‘jusapa,’ students and
proponents of North Korea’s juche self-reliance ideology in South Korea,” said
Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based Committee for
Human Rights in North Korea. “Naturally, youthful views do change, but being a
proponent of juche goes beyond mere ideology to denying the very foundations and
legitimacy of the Republic of Korea,” he told The Cipher Brief.
Im
Jong-seok, Moon Jae-in’s chief of staff, was an “avid jusapa” and “still has not
made clear whether he denounces that belief or not,” said Tara O, an adjunct
fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, in comments to The Cipher Brief.
■ 문재인은
주체사상파 출신들로 자기 주변을 에워 쌌다.
■ 물론 젊은 시절 생각은 나중에 변한다. (As per Greg Scarkatoiu)
하지만 주사파는 이념을 넘어, 대한민국 기틀과 정통성을 부정한다.
■ (Per Tara O)
문재인 비서실장인 임종석은 "골수
주사파" 였는데, "전향 여부를 아직도 밝히지 않았다".
It is those advisors who are now leading
Moon’s effort to merge the South Korean state into the North Korean regime, at
least into some form of loose confederation. To that end, Moon has been working
to make the South’s constitution more compatible with the North’s.
“The
constitutional reform that the Moon Jae-in government is spearheading is
alarming,” Ms. O wrote to me. “The most dangerous, although it appears innocuous
at initial glance, is the concept of decentralization, because it supports North
Korea’s goal of Goryeo Federation, with a low-level federation as the initial
step.”
(Per Tara O)
■ 문재인과 참모들은 한국을 북한과 합병시키려고 한다. 그런 목적으로, 한국 헌법이 북한
헌법과 좀더 합치되게 하려고 노력해 왔다.
■ "문재인 정부가 추진하는 헌법 개정은 정말 우려스럽다. 얼핏 보면 괜찮아 보이겠지만, 가장
위험한 부분은 '지방 자치제(분권)' 이다. 북한이 주장해 온 낮은 단계 고려 연방제를 뒷받침 하기 때문이다"
To that
end, Moon is pushing the concept of “grassroots democracy through autonomy,”
which in practice would result in the creation of at least 243—the number of
counties, cities, and provinces—local governments. Leftist activists could mimic
the takeover by “a small number of Bolsheviks,” who seized power in Russia in
1919.
The new constitution would, if Moon gets his way, also provide that
the capital of the Republic of Korea shall be determined by
legislation.
“This implies the capital would be moved from Seoul,” Ms. O
writes. Most assume the phrase prepares the way for a transfer to Sejong, the
new “mini capital” located south of Seoul. Yet, this provision could also permit
the designation of Pyongyang as the capital of a unified Korean
state.
■ 최소한 243 개 지방자치 정부를 만들겠다는 "풀뿌리 자치 민주주의" 라는 개념이다.
■ 1919년
소수 볼쉐비키가 러시아를 장악한 걸 따라서 그대로 해 보겠다는 것이다.
■ 新 헌법은 "법정(法定) 수도"를 규정하고 있다. 서울을
옮기겠다는 것이다. (중략)
■ 평양을 통일 한국 수도로 정할 수 있게 된다.
Finally, Moon’s
Democratic Party wanted to remove the notion of “liberal” from the concept of
“democratic” as South Korea’s “basic order” of government, O notes. The Kim
regime maintains it is “democratic” but not liberal, so the change would
harmonize the nature of the two Korean states. Moon’s party retreated from this
constitutional change in the face of opposition, but Moon’s Ministry of
Education in July 2017 deleted the concept of liberal democracy from textbooks,
she writes.
While Moon is rushing through the constitutional changes, he
is trying to formally end the Korean War. Many speculate he and Kim, when they
meet Friday, will issue a statement declaring their intention to formally sign a
treaty concluding the conflict. Fighting ended in July 1953 with an armistice,
inked in Panmunjom, that South Korea refused to sign.
■ 文 정부 기본적 질서라는
"자유민주" 에서 "자유" 라는 개념을 제거하려고 한다. 남북한이 본질적으로 융화할 수 있도록, "자유" 라는 개념을 제거한 것이다.
■
문정부는 반발에 직면해 일단 물러났지만, 교과서에서는 "자유 민주" 라는 개념을 제거했다.
Normally a peace
treaty is a positive development, but the Korean peninsula has its own logic.
Moon Jae-in last Thursday said Kim Jong Un is not demanding the removal of
American troops in return for giving up nuclear weapons, a significant
concession, but it appears Moon himself is working to get them out of his
country.
Moon in public says the right things about the South’s alliance
with America, but he has undertaken actions fundamentally inconsistent with his
obligations as a treaty partner.
In late October, for instance, his
foreign ministry agreed with China on what is now known as the Three Nos: no
additional batteries on South Korean soil of the Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense anti-missile system; no South Korea participation in integrated missile
defense; and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
■ (이 부분
중요)
보통은 평화협정은 긍정적 발전이지만 한반도에는 나름의 논리가 따로 있다.
"김정은은 미군 철수를 따로 요구하지
않았다"고 문재인은 말하지만, 정작 文 자신이 미군을 쫓아내려고 작업하는 것 같다.
(역자 註 : 나는 김정은과 역할교환 한 것으로
본다)
■ 겉으로는 한미동맹에 걸맞는 발언을 하지만, 행동은 근본적으로 한미동맹의 파트너로서 그 의무와 배치된다.
(역자 註 : 나는
이중 플레이로 봄. 대중을 속이는 건 너무 쉽다)
In late October, for instance, his foreign
ministry agreed with China on what is now known as the Three Nos: no additional
batteries on South Korean soil of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
anti-missile system; no South Korea participation in integrated missile defense;
and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
The agreement with
Beijing undermines the ability of American forces both on the peninsula and in
the region to protect themselves against missile attack and was reached with no
or virtually no consultation with Washington.
Moreover, Moon has created
one obstacle after another to the continuation of the one THAAD battery in place
in South Korea and, most disturbingly, allowed his advisors to publicly
mischaracterize the structure of the U.S.-South Korea joint military command to
inflame popular opinion against America.
■ 그 참모들은 공개적으로 한미연합사 구조를 왜곡시켜 대중
여론을 자극 했다.
Some South Koreans are, therefore, are not on board with
Moon’s peace treaty initiative. The concern is that Moon will soon argue his
country no longer needs America because the Korean War has been
concluded.
“A peace treaty should be signed when conditions ensure actual
peace,” cautioned a Saturday editorial titled “Haste Is Dangerous,” in the
widely read Seoul newspaper, JoongAng Ilbo. “Let’s wait until North Korea is
entirely disarmed of nuclear weapons and the South is safe from any military
threat,” it advised.
Although Moon says a treaty should follow North
Korea’s denuclearization, he seems far too willing to accept Kim Jong Un’s words
on giving up his most destructive weapons. We should not be surprised if the
South Korean president in the coming weeks urges the international community to
trade Kim’s mere promises of disarmament in the future for financial assistance
today.
“A great transition that can create a new world order in the world
history is beginning to take shape,” Moon said, referring to Kim Jong Un’s
upcoming summits with himself and Trump.
Only Moon knows what he had in
mind when he spoke those words, but his actions over recent months are deeply
disturbing. Both he and Kim are at this moment pursing bold initiatives, which
means Trump, as a practical matter, is now facing off with two pro-North Korean
leaders, one in Pyongyang and the other in Seoul.
Gordon G. Chang is the
author of “The Coming Collapse of China” and “Nuclear Showdown: North Korea
Takes on the World.”
■ 文이 최근 몇 달 사이 취한 행보를 가만히 보면, 정말 걱정스럽다.
■ 트럼프는
이제 " 친북 지도자 두 명을 상대하게 됐다. 평양에 한 명, 서울에 다른 한 명이다."
